Real Estate Advisory

Lakeshore East GO Train Extension –Alignment Options and Business Case Analysis

nblc & SvN


The Regional Municipality of Durham


Duram Region, On

NBLC Services

Market Analysis
Land Value Capture Analysis
TOD Evaluation
Business Case Analysis

Project Description

NBLC was retained by the Regional Municipality of Durham to undertake a real estate impact analysis to provide input into the route selection of extended GO Rail Transit service from Oshawa to Clarington. At the time, Metrolinx had offered four potential route alignments.

Our work had two primary objectives:

  • Identify which alignment and associated stations are likely to attract the highest land value and tax uplift – as well as other community benefits associated with transit-oriented development; and,
  • Understanding this, explore opportunities for the public sector to capture these economic benefits. This includes an analysis of how this uplift can be repatriated and directed to help finance transit improvements.

Our analysis considered ownership patterns, market impacts, acquisition issues, real estate impacts, and associated tax assessment implications and land value uplift.

Growth potential over a 50-year time period was estimated for each station based on market research. These station growth estimates were then used to determine the potential land value uplift at each of the stations to determine which of the four alignment options offered the most benefit to the Region. Overall, we found that there was a significant opportunity for land value capture with the preferred alignment option.

The study then explored the land value capture tools that have been used elsewhere and may be available to help fund the Region’s contribution for the transit expansion. The report concluded with a business case framework and next steps for the Region to move forward with the preferred alignment. Regional council adopted the report recommendations in December 2019.

Real Estate Advisory Case Studies